Trump 2.0

[jimcasada]

Any thoughts about how this may affect your job or retirement? Last time around, they force our contract into renegotiation (which they still haven't reach any agreement upon). But, that's not my main concern, since I'm now retired. Trump claims that he is going to make Social Security tax free, which would affect me (although I doubt it will ever happen). Anyway, here's a couple of articles I found today:
https://www.eenews.net/articles/shell-s ... trump-2-0/
https://www.plansponsor.com/another-tru ... ent-plans/

[jdoma]

As a recent retiree also, I think this will be good for us. I see an extension of the Trump tax cuts, possible SS tax free, lower inflation/lending rates, and hopefully reduced energy costs. This all will not happen overnight, but if thats the direction we move in, that is great news for retirees.

[Bubba]

Any thoughts about how this may affect your job or retirement? Last time around, they force our contract into renegotiation (which they still haven't reach any agreement upon). But, that's not my main concern, since I'm now retired. Trump claims that he is going to make Social Security tax free, which would affect me (although I doubt it will ever happen). Anyway, here's a couple of articles I found today:
https://www.eenews.net/articles/shell-s ... trump-2-0/
https://www.plansponsor.com/another-tru ... ent-plans/

We'll see. In our area, we received the de Vos treatment and contract negotiations were terminated. We were given a contract whether we liked it or not. From what I understand, Project 2025 calls for the termination of public unions, so the future is as murky as its ever been (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -employees).

[jimcasada]

Very interesting article. I really don't think that any of this is good for current Federal workers. I also heard folks on TV today saying that if all these expected tax cuts go through, Social Security would become insolvent within 7 years, and that all these planned tariffs & such won't pay anything in to help Social Security. I think we're in for much higher inflation too. First, increase tariffs obviously leads to higher prices on those products. Secondly, less restrictions on mergers & acquisitions generally reduce product price competition.

[IRQVET]

Honestly as a current FED who won't retire anytime soon, I'm more concerned with the rumors regarding slimming down the federal work force. I can only speak for my agency, but we are already operating in the RED both money and staffing wise- having to maintain production with less people around, so many people are doing 2-3 jobs (additional duties as assigned) sort of situation as we cannot hire. We have some really good people I fear we may lose due to burn out. And as people leave or retire, we are not back filling those positions- also ads to the stress.

[MLDavis]

The federal agencies are lacking alot of funds due to cutbacks. With my agency, they are not filling slots to counteract the budget crisis that they are dealing with just to keep the lights on.

[evilanne]

Take a deep breath and relax, things do not change that quickly in the Federal Government. I remember at my 1st government job that they were talking about possible RIFs that never happened. I moved before they broke up the organization but they needed more people rather than less. It was about 25 years later with BRAC that they consolidated AF bases with Army under Joint Base San Antonio. Third Job had another organization in the local area that closed down and those that did not find jobs were absorbed into our organization and I think only a few ended up on priority placement list. Fourth Job I got VSIP letter that I declined but a coworker accepted and got a better job with higher pay in private industry (you never know it could be a good thing.) Military accounting & finance offices also went through major transition with DFAS in the 1990s, which at the time seemed like a slow and painful process. Last organization I worked for reorganized about every 1.25 years before I got VERA/VSIP and retired early! I'm not sure how many times they have reorganized since. Maybe civilian agencies are a little more stable than the military organization but with the Government I think you need to Always Expect Change.

With a bureaucracy as big as the Federal Government I am sure there areas that can be improved. Personally I think government is too big although I can relate to never seeming to have enough people for the work while I was working. If you are not happy where you are, you can work to make things better there or look for opportunities elsewhere.

As far as political appointees, both sides are guilty of trying to get their people into Civil Service Jobs. I remember this issue being raised in 2016 during the elections & when Obama was leaving office. See https://www.dailysignal.com/2016/08/03/ ... ppointees/ & https://www.dailysignal.com/2016/12/08/ ... der-trump/

Government has process for contracting out activities performed by the Federal Government, OMB Circular A-76: Performance of Commercial Activities.
https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20 ... 3f842b.pdf
I'm not sure that some of these actually result in long term savings but it was around long before I started working and will probably be around a lot longer. I think sometimes organizations & agencies play with the numbers by using contracts that reduce the numbers of federal employees but not necessarily the total cost as contract costs increase over time as requirements change.

[Bubba]

Very interesting article. I really don't think that any of this is good for current Federal workers. I also heard folks on TV today saying that if all these expected tax cuts go through, Social Security would become insolvent within 7 years, and that all these planned tariffs & such won't pay anything in to help Social Security. I think we're in for much higher inflation too. First, increase tariffs obviously leads to higher prices on those products. Secondly, less restrictions on mergers & acquisitions generally reduce product price competition.

The problem is that I think people have traditionally blamed the government for everything. While there are bad people (everywhere), sometimes you've cut enough and perhaps investing is a better plan. Companies do that too.

For example, people have been clamoring for years that we have too many government employees. They mistakenly assume 2 things:

1. That our population doesn't grow. The reality is that population grows and so it would make sense that our government employment would increase too. Naturally technology could slow the growth, but there should be some growth to handle all of the additional heads (e.g. more retirees, etc.).
2. They keep using this as their impetus that we're too bloated https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=2TY. Sure, that does mean that we have tons of government employees. The only thing is that this number includes states, municipalities and federal employees. The people that get cut the most are federal employees though!

The right number to look at is this
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001

In looking at numbers, we actually have less federal employees than in the 1980s! Add to that, the fact that our population has grown so much since then https://populationeducation.org/wp-cont ... 24x791.jpg. So, in effect, we have less federal employees per capita than since the 1980s.

Obviously cuts can be made in different places. The issue that I see, however, is that a blanket idea of cutting the whole thing is entirely misguided and idiotic. On top of that, privatizing everything is just as bad or worse. We've been told that companies can fix everything, but that's not always true (thank you new TSP people!).

In any case, that's just my opinion.

[PhilJohn]

I made a lot of money in the market in his first term.

About Tariffs. I had an interesting conversation with one of my co-workers. The premise being Federal Income tax is a relatively a newer thing. She was explaining that the government made massive amounts of wealth by using TARIFFS before we had Federal Income Tax. I guess that's to be debated but she is very sharp.

And if we end up not getting taxed on overtime, well that's a game changer in my household.

[IRQVET]

She was explaining that the government made massive amounts of wealth by using TARIFFS before we had Federal Income Tax. I guess that's to be debated but she is very sharp.

When I took Macro Economics in college I remember them telling us this, that TARIFFS used to be the federal governments bread and butter back in the day. But I also remember the lesson on TARIFFS where it was explained that the only people who pay TARIFFS are the consumer. Companies shield their profits by raising their prices. So the consumer on the other end essentially gets screwed twice!

[PhilJohn]

Unless the tariffs are so expensive the consumer could never pay for the product thus forcing the manufacturers to go out of business or. move production within the states..lots of ways to skin a cat.

Ultimately I think it’s an exciting time.

[94aggie]

edit my post - no politics intended. i’ve been reading that small caps could do well. thats what i am hoping for.

[Aitrus]

Gentle reminder to everybody: talking politics is allowed, but jt needs to be in the context of how it affects our retirement / TSP investing / employment considerations. No insults, no debates, and no pot-stirring allowed.

Not that I’ve seen anything like that, just keeping it on everyone’s radar.

[evilanne]

Any thoughts about how this may affect your job or retirement? Last time around, they force our contract into renegotiation (which they still haven't reach any agreement upon). But, that's not my main concern, since I'm now retired. Trump claims that he is going to make Social Security tax free, which would affect me (although I doubt it will ever happen). Anyway, here's a couple of articles I found today:
https://www.eenews.net/articles/shell-s ... trump-2-0/
https://www.plansponsor.com/another-tru ... ent-plans/

Regarding 2nd article: With the recent election, I think they will like extend the current Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) rates. There is some talk of lower or no income tax under Trump but I not counting on that.

As far as retirement I hope they can bring back the Stretch IRA but I am already trying to Rothify my retirement accounts by doing conversions. Even if they cannot bring back the stretch, it would be helpful if they could increase the time period for withdrawals for traditional Inherited IRA for non spouse beneficiaries.

If you have $1M, a single non-spouse beneficiary would have to withdraw at least $100K annually if they spread it out evenly over the current 10 year period which will likely put them in a higher tax bracket. That will increase tax revenue in the short term but they are just shifting the taxes forward and will likely result in less taxes in the long run. https://taxfoundation.org/blog/what-rot ... ax-reform/ calls Rothification a "Tax Gimmick". Article states "Lawmakers trying to raise revenue over a 10-year budget window might consider using Rothification, but doing so would completely disregard the true long-term effects."

Secure Act 2.0 requires catch up contributions to be to Roth https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmck ... re-act-20/. It doesn't look like TSP has adopted this for civil service https://www.tsp.gov/publications/tspfs12.pdf But they require tax exempt combat pay to be made to only to Roth (which makes sense for service members but it doesn't generate any taxable income there).

[jimcasada]

I made a lot of money in the market in his first term.

About Tariffs. I had an interesting conversation with one of my co-workers. The premise being Federal Income tax is a relatively a newer thing. She was explaining that the government made massive amounts of wealth by using TARIFFS before we had Federal Income Tax. I guess that's to be debated but she is very sharp.

And if we end up not getting taxed on overtime, well that's a game changer in my household.

I understand that the main sticking point my former employer has been fighting in coming to a contract agreement, is that management is insisting on doing away with 1 1/2 pay for overtime, opting for some kind of a 7 day week 10hr day set of rotating shifts with any hours over 8hr/day or 40hr/wk worked on straight pay only. I'm retired now, so it wouldn't affect me any, but do you think that having no tax on overtime hours is worth it if you are only getting straight pay?