Extreme Caution

[VAmanBulls]

TSPers please beware and protect your accounts. The charts are clearly painting a picture that has already started. Retail bulls are buying, the Institutions are selling - short positions, into any rally. This is why we have seen sideways trends. The Institutions are playing us! This is not a market you want to play with considering our limited trading capabilities with the TSP. S&P 7K was a SELL signal. 50K in the DOW was a SELL signal. Jobs report showed weakness, payrolls fell 92K, Oil is surging -inflationary, the dollar has bottomed. There will be a time to deploy your cash and ride the S&P back up to 8K. Now is not the time.

[tnwhiskey]

I'm treading a lot more carefully these days with the whipsawing, sideways, uncertainty, and volatility. Between following a few seasonal strats and some lines in the sand I've drawn on charts, preservation is key. Maybe, just maybe, all of this is the catalyst needed for an overdue pullback or correction but I certainly don't want to ride the elevator down. If I were a younger investor, probably wouldn't care as much but I remember 2008 & 2022 and just want to mitigate risk as much as I can.

[Scarfinger]

I am riding it down this time.

Best of luck to all.

[VAmanBulls]

One comment I think is important to add. My perspective comes from someone who has acquired a relatively large TSP nest egg with about 4 years to retirement. It's important to understand this perspective. If you are a young buck here, it's likely better to not try and 'time' the market. Most of my money over the years was made by going 80% C and 20% S and not looking at the news or markets. The 'seasonals' is something I never really got into but I don't discredit it at all. The future looks bright, but I'm just trying to catch a short-term sell-off. Earnings still look great long-term. This Iran thing will pass. Some estimates for the S&P for 2027 are at $8,030!! I will be leveling back in here very soon.

[Bubba]

One comment I think is important to add. My perspective comes from someone who has acquired a relatively large TSP nest egg with about 4 years to retirement. It's important to understand this perspective. If you are a young buck here, it's likely better to not try and 'time' the market. Most of my money over the years was made by going 80% C and 20% S and not looking at the news or markets. The 'seasonals' is something I never really got into but I don't discredit it at all. The future looks bright, but I'm just trying to catch a short-term sell-off. Earnings still look great long-term. This Iran thing will pass. Some estimates for the S&P for 2027 are at $8,030!! I will be leveling back in here very soon.

I'm still having to wait 20 years before I get to retire, so I get your point with the young buck...even if I'm not that young anymore. nonetheless, I've embraced seasonality for quite some time. Some years I didn't get the 30%+ of the C fund, but for example, in 2022 I got a 14% return whereas the C Fund lost over 20%. So, you pick your battles, right? Nonetheless, I think we're in a slow unwind, much like 2001 to 2003. Likely, the SPX, in my projections could hit around the low of 2022 again...in the next year or 2. That's based on the 3M vs 10YR relationship, gold/lumber ratio, unemployment increases and much more. As I always state, I hope I'm wrong and I also hope to ride the ups as long as possible. All I can say is, good luck to all!

[bdrieck]

you know. this makes me think.. I have about 10 years before retirement. I'm following a strategy. If I die suddenly. I'm worried that my TSP will need to be moved and my wife will not be able to.. I guess i'm going to have to get a contingency plan worked out to get her the info she needs to make the changes.

[Bubba]

you know. this makes me think.. I have about 10 years before retirement. I'm following a strategy. If I die suddenly. I'm worried that my TSP will need to be moved and my wife will not be able to.. I guess i'm going to have to get a contingency plan worked out to get her the info she needs to make the changes.

Funny, I've wondered about this often. What if I pass and say, I was 100% in the I fund? My wife would NEVER figure it out. She would possibly even never figure there was money there, even if we talked about it a million times.

[Aitrus]

Funny, I've wondered about this often. What if I pass and say, I was 100% in the I fund? My wife would NEVER figure it out. She would possibly even never figure there was money there, even if we talked about it a million times.

That's why I have a series of How-To guides written out for my wife to follow if I die before her. I have instructions for what to do with the TSP money (dump it all into an L-fund that's appropriate for her, or pull it out and put it in something similar with Fidelity or Vanguard - her choice), what rights she has with the VA as the widow of a retiree, how the FERS and FEHB stuff works, how to sell my collectibles and get good prices, logins and passwords for everything, estimations of how the money situation will change due to my death (reduction in FERS / VA / military retirement payments and change to single filer status with the IRS), etc.

If a form of some kind is needed, I include where to find it online as well as a copy of it so she can look over it at her leisure. I've also included any guides, pamphlets, or explanation papers if appropriate (VA handouts, TSP explanation pages, etc). If a website is complicated to navigate, I include some screenshots of what to look for or where to go. There's also a list of contacts and numbers she can call to get assistance with various issues.

It's all in a 3-ring binder called "Read This If I Die" that's kept in our safe. She knows it's there, and I've shown her the contents a couple of times so she knows what's inside. I update the guides every couple of years as things change, whenever passwords get updated, etc.

She has a similar folder for me since there's a bunch of stuff she's responsible for that I would need to take care of if she dies before I do.

[12squared]

I have a series of How-To guides written out for my wife to follow if I die before her. I have instructions for what to do with the TSP money (dump it all into an L-fund that's appropriate for her, or pull it out and put it in something similar with Fidelity or Vanguard - her choice), what rights she has with the VA as the widow of a retiree, how the FERS and FEHB stuff works, how to sell my collectibles and get good prices, logins and passwords for everything, estimations of how the money situation will change due to my death (reduction in FERS / VA / military retirement payments and change to single filer status with the IRS), etc.

If a form of some kind is needed, I include where to find it online as well as a copy of it so she can look over it at her leisure. I've also included any guides, pamphlets, or explanation papers if appropriate (VA handouts, TSP explanation pages, etc). If a website is complicated to navigate, I include some screenshots of what to look for or where to go. There's also a list of contacts and numbers she can call to get assistance with various issues.

It's all in a 3-ring binder called "Read This If I Die" that's kept in our safe. She knows it's there, and I've shown her the contents a couple of times so she knows what's inside. I update the guides every couple of years as things change, whenever passwords get updated, etc.

She has a similar folder for me since there's a bunch of stuff she's responsible for that I would need to take care of if she dies before I do.

Impressive! Like a next to last will and testament.

[VAmanBulls]

Or, right before you die, just say 'wait' and put in your trade to the G fund. Then you can say, ok now I can die. Looks like a classic 'head and shoulders' pattern is forming in the S&P now. Still extreme caution flag flying here.

[Aitrus]

Or, right before you die, just say 'wait' and put in your trade to the G fund. Then you can say, ok now I can die. Looks like a classic 'head and shoulders' pattern is forming in the S&P now. Still extreme caution flag flying here.

I ride a motorcycle. I might not be able to do that right before I die.

But agree - massive head and shoulders pattern forming.

[TLuke]

Same “Death Book” as @Aitrus. Plus a “NOK box. ” Keep your beneficiaries/POD/TOD updated on ALL your accounts. Wills filed with your attorney or county clerk of courts. Dying in Florida is harder than living here.

[Psalm23]

Great tips for those who will need them in the future. As the widow of a retiree, my late husband never discussed his TSP account with me—he only mentioned that I was the beneficiary. When the account was transferred to me, TSP had moved all the funds into the L2030 fund based on my age. From then on, I was left to manage everything on my own. Without resources like the TSP Center or other TSP groups, I would have been completely lost. Thank you!

[Bubba]

Great tips for those who will need them in the future. As the widow of a retiree, my late husband never discussed his TSP account with me—he only mentioned that I was the beneficiary. When the account was transferred to me, TSP had moved all the funds into the L2030 fund based on my age. From then on, I was left to manage everything on my own. Without resources like the TSP Center or other TSP groups, I would have been completely lost. Thank you!

Sorry to hear that, but glad that you found a home here. There are tons of resources here that are useful for a retiree. Good luck!

[Psalm23]

Great tips for those who will need them in the future. As the widow of a retiree, my late husband never discussed his TSP account with me—he only mentioned that I was the beneficiary. When the account was transferred to me, TSP had moved all the funds into the L2030 fund based on my age. From then on, I was left to manage everything on my own. Without resources like the TSP Center or other TSP groups, I would have been completely lost. Thank you!

Sorry to hear that, but glad that you found a home here. There are tons of resources here that are useful for a retiree. Good luck!

Thank you, there's always something new to learn here!