More work in futility???

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Bubba
Posts: 663
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

More work in futility???

Post by Bubba »

So, from time to time, I like to play with AI.

The first thing I wanted to do is model how the 1970s looked for investing purposes. Attached you'll find returns (CAGR) for different options going from 1973 to 1980 (note that some of the indices are only simulated and not based on actual returns, such as TIPS). My expectation is that the next 4 to 10 years will look similar to this outcome, although with a twist. The 2nd thing I did was model how a lower interest rate would have impacted the 1970s (remember that at a certain point, the interest rate goes up quite a bit). I did this because our present government has decided that as soon as they can change the Fed's policies, they will lower the rate. My primary expectation is that we'll get a stagflationary environment (i.e. higher unemployment due to AI and other issues and higher inflation) with lower interest rates making it difficult to make money almost anywhere.

Perhaps more futility? Maybe something interesting for someone else to ponder?

Enjoy!

P.S. For whatever reason, my 2nd picture of lower interest rates got posted first. So, just keep that in mind here.
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Fund Prices2026-04-16

FundPriceDayYTD
G $19.83 0.01% 1.24%
F $21.00 -0.14% 0.55%
C $113.05 0.26% 3.23%
S $106.82 0.28% 6.39%
I $61.42 0.02% 10.69%
L2075 $11.78 0.18% 6.20%
L2070 $13.49 0.18% 6.20%
L2065 $22.75 0.18% 6.20%
L2060 $22.76 0.18% 6.20%
L2055 $22.76 0.18% 6.21%
L2050 $43.76 0.14% 5.32%
L2045 $19.71 0.13% 5.08%
L2040 $71.06 0.12% 4.84%
L2035 $18.48 0.11% 4.56%
L2030 $60.42 0.10% 4.00%
Linc $30.02 0.05% 2.65%

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