2026 I Fund perdictions

[Bob1972]

Do we think the I Fund can pull another year of 20% gains? I am thinking of jumping over to it for next year.

[Aitrus]

Some data for you to consider:

- From 1988 - 2024, the I Fund had a 20+% return 11 times, which is 31% (11 of 36 years).
- The only time the I Fund had back-to-back 20+ years was 2003 /2004 (37.92% / 20.01%).
- It came close in 1998/1999 (18.24%/25.26%), but was followed by three -15+% years from 2000-2002.
- It came close again in 2012/2013 (18.64%/22.13%), but the following two years were both negative.
- The average return for the I Fund in the years after a 20+% year is 2.87%. The total return for those years is 31.6%.
- A total of 3 post-20+% years had 10+% returns: 2004 (20.01%), 2005 (13.63%), and 2007 (11.44%). All others were either less than 10% or were negative.
- The PNR for the years after a 20+% return is 73% (8 of 11 years were positive).

For comparison, during the years after the I Fund returned 20% or more:

- The C Fund was positive 9 times (82%) for a total return of 92.13% and an average of 8.38%.
- The C Fund beat the I Fund 7 times (64%).
- The S Fund was positive 9 times (82%) for a total return of 117.9% and an average of 10.72%.
- The S Fund beat the I Fund 7 times (64%).

Here's the year-by-year breakdown:

Year C / S / I
1989 31.02 / 23.93 / 9.23
1992 7.71 / 11.89 / -13.87
1994 1.33 / -2.66 / 6.23
2000 -11.95 / -9.03 / -15.20
2004 10.79 / 18.03 / 20.01
2005 4.93 / 10.48 / 13.63
2007 5.55 / 5.50 / 11.44
2010 15.06 / 29.08 / 7.94
2014 13.79 / 7.80 / -5.27
2018 -4.41 / -9.26 / -13.41
2020 18.31 / 31.85 / 8.17

Conclusion: The odds of it being a positive year for the I Fund in 2026 are good. However, only 27% of years (3 of 11) were double digit years to the upside, so expectations should be tempered. It's probably better to lean more heavily towards the C and S Funds.

[Bubba]

Thanks for doing this! I've been wondering the same, but I suspect next year is going to be a pain for everyone. of course I thought that of this year too...so who knows?

[McLovin]

Doesn't look like it. Stay the course. Look for a 8-10 push at the year end then a continued push by AI followed by a broadening of the market. Look for closer to 15% return rather than the 25 to 30% returns of this year. And remember. "That is just one persons who you've never met voicing his opinion on the internet." Do your own due diligence.

I am in the S fund for the near future