This is the year

[McLovin]

Going out on a limb. I am expecting greater than a 20 percent return this year. I am hoping this year is the year my account pushes above a million. Sending positive vibes out there. Look for a big spring. It is a midterm election year so this is a super bold prediction and likely to blow up in my face.

[VAmanBulls]

I appreciate the positive vibrations and I agree, it's bold. I have been waiting for a significant pull-back and reset for months. I missed out on a lot of potential gains. But what to do now? The DOW, S&P, and the Russell 2000 all hit new, all-time highs. For the S&P, we are closing in on valuation ratios we have not seen since 2020. The 10-year average for the S&P is 18.7X. Last week we were at 22.2X! My gut tells me now is not the time to put the foot on the gas. I see a bright future for the markets, but we really need a healthy reset. With all that said, earnings estimates still look strong. Consensus estimates for the S&P for 2026 are at 6,865 and for 2027, at 7,920! Markets just don't seem to care about valuations right now, and my experience tells me it just takes a spark to have a big sell-off under those conditions. But I admit I'm getting more conservative and cautious in my older age with 5 years to retirement. Ride that Bull!

[Bubba]

I appreciate the positive vibrations and I agree, it's bold. I have been waiting for a significant pull-back and reset for months. I missed out on a lot of potential gains. But what to do now? The DOW, S&P, and the Russell 2000 all hit new, all-time highs. For the S&P, we are closing in on valuation ratios we have not seen since 2020. The 10-year average for the S&P is 18.7X. Last week we were at 22.2X! My gut tells me now is not the time to put the foot on the gas. I see a bright future for the markets, but we really need a healthy reset. With all that said, earnings estimates still look strong. Consensus estimates for the S&P for 2026 are at 6,865 and for 2027, at 7,920! Markets just don't seem to care about valuations right now, and my experience tells me it just takes a spark to have a big sell-off under those conditions. But I admit I'm getting more conservative and cautious in my older age with 5 years to retirement. Ride that Bull!

Actually, given the market conditions I'm tracking, I'm expecting a significant drop this year. I could be wrong but when you look at gold vs. lumber, unemployment, yield curve uninversion, the metals rallying...those things typically do not all happen in a healthy market. We'll see though, but I expect some pain this year. As always, I hope I'm wrong.

[PhilJohn]

id like one of those 50+ returns just once. I see others get them so why not me? Must be a crazy experience to have!